The quartet of Bola Ahmed Tinubu, Atiku Abubakar, Peter Obi and Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso are frontline contenders for the forthcoming 2023 Nigeria’s presidential election.
The next year’s presidential race in Nigeria may largely be among the candidates of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), Labour Party (LP) and New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP).
The PDP has fielded former Vice President Atiku Abubakar as its flag bearer, while APC, LP and NNPP have former Governor of Lagos State, Senator Bola Ahmed Tinubu, former Kano state governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso and former Governor Peter Obi of Anambra state as their candidates, respectively.
While Obi emerged as an unopposed candidate after he ditched PDP for the Labour party, Atiku got PDP’s ticket through a keenly contested primary election that still polarised the party.
Kwankwaso also emerged unopposed in his new party and Tinubu defeated several bigwigs including Vice President Yemi Osinbajo, Senate President Ahmed Lawan and former Minister of Transport Rotimi Amaechi among others, to become the APC’s presidential candidate.
As the 2023 elections draw near, both Atiku, Tinubu, Obi and Kwankwaso have been perfecting their strategies to garner votes, though they have their political strengths and weaknesses in the winning formula.
Bola Ahmed Tinubu (APC)
The self-acclaimed ‘kingmaker’ has many advantages according to political observers. First, he is far ahead in terms of experience in politics and governance. He served as Lagos State governor for eight years, and worked for the formation of APC, the party that historically defeated an incumbent government in Nigeria for the first time.
Again, incumbency factor may also help Tinubu to see his long term ambition through. Also, he will enjoy the support of President Muhammadu Buhari and 22 governors of his party.
The APC cannot afford to lose the presidency being in that exalted office for only eight years, compared to the PDP’s 16 years. Tinubu might also enjoy the backing of the political class, the religious leaders, businessmen and elites because of his several business interests across the country.
Also, analysts say the former Lagos state governor has performed well in terms of project execution and created a road map that put Lagos state on track of development since the return of Democracy in 1999.
However, Tinubu must address some pertinent political issues in order to have a headway in next year’s election. The major one is the issue of Muslim-Muslim ticket which literally divided the country into the thick fault lines of Muslim versus Christian rivalry.
The matter has for now remained the main obstacle to his chance of winning the election as a lot of Christian faithful who formed the majority in 17 southern states found fielding people of the same faith as disrespect to them.
Also, his apparently failing health status is counting against him, in fact one of the factors, even the Muslim who ought to welcome the same faith ticket, are not seem to be comfortable with his candidature.
Tinubu’s age is another factor working against him, the current medical tourism that defines President Buhari’s presidency in the last seven years, made people sceptical of repeating another aged and physically sick person in that office.
The unprecedented hardship and rising inflation which plunged millions of Nigerians into abject poverty, coupled with the insecurity, will make it difficult for people to vote the party into power again.
Atiku Abubakar (PDP)
Atiku Abubakar has potentials of becoming a president and under whatever political party he runs, he will certainly make a serious impact in the race. He is considered to be experienced in both politicking and art of governance. He was said to be behind many economic achievements during Obasanjo’s administration.
Another added advantage for Atiku is the current same faith issue and Tinubu’s health challenge, as well as lack of political structure by Peter Obi and seeming unpopularity of Kwankwaso beyond Kano and Jigawa states axis.
However, he needs to do a lot of work for him to secure the seat despite many advantages that may aid him. The serial presidential candidate and his party need to do a lot of campaigning to sell his candidature, especially now that he is running for the seat without the support of five PDP governors, four of them from the southern part of the country, which is the stronghold of the party.
Also, having come from the same Northeast geo-political zone with Kashim Shettima, vice presidential candidate of the APC, Atiku needs to do a lot to get the support of the electorates from the six states of the zone.
Peter Obi (LP)
Although the name of Obi might not ring a bell as those of Atiku and Tinubu, the LP flag-bearer has become a force since he joined the Labour Party to realise his presidential ambition.
He was said to be a prudent manager of resources and achieved a lot when he was governor of Anambra state, in terms of infrastructural achievements and human capital development.
These attributes were said to draw people to Obi, especially the youth who sees him as a messiah that will salvage them from the misrule of both APC and PDP gladiators. The ‘Obidient movement’ has grown to become a large force to be reckoned with, as majority of them are volunteers without getting ‘shi-shi’ from Obi.
However, Obi has more challenges than Atiku and Tinubu. Apart from the challenge of lack of backing of major political brokers in the country, the LP candidate has to do a lot of homework to get the support of the far north (North West), which has the largest voting bloc in the country.
Since his emergence as candidate of LP, his followers, who are mostly from the South East of the country, are making him to be a sort of ‘Igbo’ candidate. This insinuation made the ‘so called’ Muslim North to distance themselves from Obi.
Apart from that, the LP candidate lacks the political structure that will galvanise for him votes from him across the country.
For instance, in most of the states, the LP didn’t even have candidates in most elective political posts, Obi is making the contest just about himself, a situation that political analysts described as a miscalculation that will work against him.
Also, the choice of unpopular politician, Datti Baba-Ahmed, as his running mate will be another disadvantage. Because Datti is not popular even in his native Zaria Local Government Area of Kaduna State.
Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso (NNPP)
Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso has cult-like followership from his Kwankwasiyya movement. The movement he created to return to the governorship seat back in 2011.
Also, analysts siad the governor has performed well in terms of project execution during his second term. He constructed Kano’s first flyover, underpass bridges and many critical infrastructure projects.
Kano state has the highest number of voters in the country, and being the home of Kwankwasiyya, his supporters believe that Kwankwaso will get the majority of such votes.
And as the only formidable presidential candidate from the North West, some analysts believe that people of the zone will vote for Kwankwaso as their ‘son’ in the race.
However, the governor must address some pertinent political issues in order to have headway in next year’s election. The major one is that he is largely unknown in the southern part of the country.
He is seen by many as a local champion, who will not get votes beyond his home state of Kano and neighbouring Jigawa state. As such, it would be difficult for him to get at least 25% of votes in at least 24 states, as enshrined in the Electoral Act.
A political scientist, Babangida Salihu said though people don’t want to admit it, the 2023 contest is between the two major political parties, PDP and APC, who stand a better chance because of their spread across the length and breadth of the country.
“Among the two also, the ruling party, APC has a slight edge. Firstly, because of the persistent internal crisis within the PDP. Secondly, for the fact that the outgoing president is from the North, hence they will do all they can to make sure powerful moves to the South,” he said.
Salihu added that, “Several factors beyond these would shape the outcome of the 2023 elections, but alot revolves around what I mentioned above both interms of how people vote and the motives for their choice of candidates, whether directly or indirectly.”
He further stated that, “We cannot separate the candidates from their political parties they are representing, because the truth is we don’t practice independent candidacy in Nigeria.
“If we look at Atiku a lot of people talk about him for his experience. But experience alone can not guarantee you success in the kind of system we operate in the country.
“For Obi, you know the story and the wave the Obi movement is gathering particularly in the South-East and South-South axis, but you can’t win an election in Nigeria by relying only on one or two out of six regions in the country, especially where the two regions are not even the most populous.
“And Kwankwaso just like Obi, has an advantage of age as people are tired of seeing the old guys occupying the highest office, but does he have that spread to win 25% in 24 states? You only need to be outside Kano or at least North-West to know that the answer is capital NO.”
The political scientist added that religion and ethnicity will also play a key role in the contest.
Mr Babangida said; “Religion will play a key role in how people vote, but I am not sure Obi will get 25% of votes from key northern states. You know there are Christians with more allegiance to PDP and when they see that Obi though a Christian may not likely win the election, so rather than splitting their votes which will inevitably favour the APC, they would prefer to stick with the PDP.
“For Tinubu, the South-West will rally behind him and will ensure that win the election. Of course, the trio of Atiku, Obi and Kwankwaso will all have their fare share, but Tinubu will will the six South-West handsomely for one reason that he is Yoruba man and that the Afenifere spirit.
“They may have issues with him, his party or predecessor, a faction may openly endorse Atiku, Obi or even Kwankwaso but majority of them will canvas and vote for their own.”
